Launch weather forecast
Posted: June 5, 2003

 Forecast for Sunday, June 8

Issued: Thursday, June 5
Launch Weather Officer: Joel Tumbiolo, 45th Weather Squadron

Synoptic Discussion: "No changes to current forecast reasoning. Subtropical ridge will be the dominant large scale feature in control, with the axis remaining south of the area through mid next week. This will result in the continuation of south-southwesterly flow throughout the atmosphere. Moisture levels will remain high, and will provide the fuel for daily afternoon thunderstorms. Daytime heating, in addition to local sea and lake breezes will be the triggers for thunderstorm development.

"Main concerns during will be cumulus clouds and developing thunderstorms within in the vicinity of the launch pad/flight path."

Clouds: Broken at 3,000 feet with 5/8ths sky coverage and tops at 10,000 feet; Broken at 10,000 feet with 5/8ths sky coverage and tops at 18,000 feet; and Broken at 18,000 feet with 6/8ths sky coverage and tops at 25,000 feet

Visibility: 7 miles

Launch Pad Winds: Southeasterly from 150 degrees at 10 gusting to 15 knots

Temperature: 82 to 84 degrees F

Relative Humidity: 70 percent

Weather: Showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity

Probability of Violating Weather Constraints: 60 percent

Concerns: Cumulus Cloud Rule, Lightning Rule

 

 24- and 48-hour Delay Forecasts

Monday's Probability of Violating Constraints: 60 percent
Concerns: Cumulus Cloud Rule, Lightning Rule

Tuesday's Probability of Violating Constraints: 60 percent
Concerns: Cumulus Cloud Rule, Lightning Rule

 

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