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Launch weather forecast
Posted: August 27, 2004

 Forecast for Saturday, August 28

Issued: Friday, August 27
Launch Weather Officers: F. Clay Flinn, Johnny Weems, 45th Weather Squadron

Synoptic Discussion: "A trough of lower pressure will continue to influence the weather over the peninsula through the next 24 to 36 hours. This will result in enhanced afternoon thunderstorm activity. Surface winds should become East to Southeasterly as the sea breeze sets up in the early afternoon. Initial thunderstorm development along the seabreeze is expected in the early afternoon near the coast and will push slowly toward the West. The seabreeze should not migrate very far inland with thunderstorm activity remaining closer to the coast. Thunderstorms are also expected to form inland during the afternoon hours. Steering level winds throughout the column are unfavorable and will act to steer thunderstorm activity back toward the coast in the mid to late afternoon time period.

"The main concern for the launch will be isolated thunderstorms within 10 nm of the complex and associated clouds (anvil, debris)."

Clouds: Scattered at 3,000 feet with 1-2/8ths sky coverage and tops at 5,000 feet, Scattered at 10,000 feet with 1-2/8ths sky coverage and tops at 14,000 feet; Scattered at 25,000 feet with 3-4/8ths sky coverage and tops at 28,000 feet

Visibility: 7 miles

Launch Pad Winds: Southeasterly from 130 degrees at 12 to 15 knots

Temperature: 83 degrees F

Relative Humidity: 80 percent

Weather: Isolated Thunderstorms

Solar Activity: Low

Probability of Violating Weather Constraints: 80 percent

Concerns: Isolated showers/thunderstorms, anvil clouds, debris clouds


 Times of note

Launch time: 7:02 p.m. EDT (2302 GMT)
Moonrise: 7:15 p.m. EDT (2315 GMT)
Sunset: 7:47 p.m. EDT (2347 GMT)


 Forecast for 24-hour delay

Sunday's Probability of Violating Constraints: 60 percent
Concerns: Isolated showers/thunderstorms, anvil clouds, debris clouds